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Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season/Fay
06L.FAY AoI: Cape Verde The ITCZ has been tooting endlessly! Wait and see. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:31, 2 August 2008 (UTC) :I'm not sure if this is the same but this looks like Bertha #2. Same location and a well defined MLC at least. I'd be surprised to see this NOT become a hurricane. -Winter123 18:37, 6 August 2008 (UTC) ::Huh? It looks kind of weak right now. The system near Mali, however, is predicted to strengthen by many models. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:00, 7 August 2008 (UTC) :::Yeah it died. See below. -Winter123 02:12, 8 August 2008 (UTC) 92L.INVEST Hmm, I guess it un-died. SHIPS predicts a cat.2, supposed to head near Hispanola, medium-risk on TWO. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:33, 10 August 2008 (UTC) :High risk from NHC now. Most models seem to send this over Hispaniola, Early cycle intensity guidence suggests a Cat 1, poss a Cat 2 after 120 hours, and still intensifying. - Salak 00:32, 11 August 2008 (UTC) ::NHC's got it back at medium risk, but it's showing up on the danger graphic. "ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS". --Patteroast 19:18, 11 August 2008 (UTC) :::Well, this will almost certainly be off, but I predict a TS landfall on Anguilla on the 14th, a cat. 1 landfall on Great Inagua Island on the 16th, a cat. 2 landfall on Andros island on the 17th, a cat. 3 landfall on the 18th near Miami, then a landfall near Spring Hill, Florida as a cat. 3 on the 19th, then a cat. 4 landfall near Cape Hatteras on the 21st, then a cat. 2 landfall in New Jersey on the 22nd. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:10, 11 August 2008 (UTC) ::::"AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY." - Salak 03:00, 12 August 2008 (UTC) :::::Ohh, this is bad: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early2.png. And the forecast track points it toward south Florida. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 06:49, 12 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Well the latest strength forecast isn't ideal, but it still only rates it as a strong Tropical Storm. It could be a lot worse. I think I'd be more worried about the potential impact in Haiti and the Carribean than in Florida. - Salak 10:35, 12 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::High-risk now, and I think Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida, and the entire US eastern seaboard up to Connecticut need to watch this closely as well. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:44, 12 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::Recon aircraft is being sent out today, so we may have something later on. - Enzo Aquarius 16:02, 12 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::::TCFA, but the recon flight showed no tropical depression yet. Watching very closely... --Patteroast 20:59, 12 August 2008 (UTC) STDS Issued. You know, if this storm is as bad as my previous prediction then this might be the worst since Andrew in some places. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:08, 12 August 2008 (UTC) :Didn't find a TD, but they intned to send a Hurricane Hunter again tomorrow if necessary. Dropped to medium risk - Salak 00:27, 13 August 2008 (UTC) ::THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED. - Salak 11:48, 13 August 2008 (UTC) :::Models giving it a slightly better chance now (did you hear about the possible bigfoot body found in Georgia (US state)?). 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:11, 13 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Nope, not seen it at all in the British news sites. NHC have bumped this back up to High Risk; THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY OR ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. - Salak 09:30, 14 August 2008 (UTC) :::::Hmm, the latest model run looks a lot like the 1933 Long Island express. GFDL and HWRF predict a cat. 2, but CMC espoecially seems to head it far south and into the Gulf but keeps it a TS, and HWRF gives it cat. 4 pressure but cat. 2 winds. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:44, 14 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Woah, OMG!! What the heck has just happened?! It looks like it's just strengthened to a full-blown hurricane within the past few hours, complete with an eye! Recon investigating this system, I think we will possibly have a TS by 11, and I wouldn't be surprised if we did. It's in 29C (84F) water right now, and the water ahead of it is even warmer, up to 31C (88F). Shear is expected to be fairly low as well. GFDL turns it to a cat. 3, HWRF to a cat. 4, racing along the Florida coastline. I hope Florida is prepared for this system. Here comes Fay, and if it forms, then let's pray (rhymes with Fay) that it won't be too bad. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:08, 14 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::Could somebody please explain to me how this is not a tropical cyclone? It looks like Tropical Storm Fay. I've seen many named storms significantly less impressive than this. I'd be stunned if this fizzles. I'm already stunned that there are no advisories yet. SHIPS, GFDL and HWFI all make it a Category 2 in 96 hrs. HWFI makes it a major hurricane in 108 hrs. (By the way, Astro, the Long Island Express was in 1938, not 1933). -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:33, 14 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::92L really seems pretty remarkable for having stayed this seemingly organized for this long, and yet still not managing to have a fully closed circulation. When it finally closes it up, this thing's gonna go nuts. --Patteroast 02:58, 15 August 2008 (UTC) Must be by now, surely? NHC update: "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO." - Salak 04:02, 15 August 2008 (UTC) :I've just stopped expecting anything from this system. That's because, it's unpredictable! Models think it's east of Puerto Rico, but on satellite I defenitely see the centre just southwest of Puerto Rico's SW tip, and it's moving southwestward, not westard! We better hope that one of the two invests develops very quickly, or we could have trouble. Why? Just look at GFS, if one of the systems doesn't punch a hole through the Bermuda high, then southern Ontario would see sunny weather for a whole day (finally!), but that's not my point. If the high stays strong, then Fay will head into the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall around the Mississippi area. CMC turns 93L into a monster and a re-Juan, which apparently still does not prevent Fay from going into the Gulf. If both systems stay weak, and this one might due to land interaction with Hispanola, then both systems could follow the strong Bermuda high into the Gulf. Most models however predict the system to pass just east of Florida, and GFDL turns it to a cat. 4, I tell you the water there is very warm. Apparently it hasn't been a depression because the circulation didn't reach the surface, but maybe it will have a better chance as recon's being sent again. Hispanola, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida, and the entire US east coast should monitor the progress of the system very closely. Danger, inhibition astraddle transgress! 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:04, 15 August 2008 (UTC) ::Special Tropical Distrurbance statement! "SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON." - Salak 16:20, 15 August 2008 (UTC) :::Guess what, it is now near the ''southern coast of the Dominican republic and moving WSW, so its track has shifted south and west. Models are calling for a landfall near the Florida Panhandle, so West Florida may be affected more than east florida. Who knows, maybe the weakness of both systems is a good thing, because it will probably weaken before it can affect the east coast. If one of them strengthens rapidly however, the storm can drift northeastwards and affect the east coast. If the high stays strong, there is a good chance it can make landfall near Mississippi/Alabama and hit S. Ontario. This is a large system, so it is gaining strength from both the Caribbean and the Atlantic. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:33, 15 August 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Fay 5:00 PM advisory brings it straight past depression status and now we have Fay. NHC seems to like the HWRF model and drags it as a tropical storm over the Greater Antilles and the Florida Peninsula, although a bit more of a westward movement and it might become more interesting. Albireo 21:10, 15 August 2008 (UTC) :"Gentlemen, there is good news, and there is bad news. The good news is, Fay will mostly spend time near land so won't be able to strengthen. The bad news is, first said piece of land is Hispaniola." :...dammit.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 22:43, 15 August 2008 (UTC) ::Now expected to strengthen into a hurricane before hitting Florida, although the track could farther shift west, because I think it's south of Haiti, not over Hispanola. CMC and GFDL now bring it east of Florida. If you live in Georgia you should also prepare for a TS, and we might get the remnants in Southern Ontario. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:50, 16 August 2008 (UTC) :::Uh-oh, it's expected to make landfall near Punta Gorda with 140 kph (85 mph) winds and 175 kph (110 mph) gusts, which would make it the worst storm to hit the area since Charley of 2004. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:35, 16 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Aye carumba, talk about a very weird track. This is definitely not going to be good for Cuba and the west-coast of Florida, especially if Fay is upgraded to hurricane status as is predicted. :S - Enzo Aquarius 01:00, 17 August 2008 (UTC) :::::No longer expected to gain hurricane status, but it has already killed four people in Hispanola. All models and the NHC forecast predict a possible direct hit on Southern Ontario, possibly on the night of Saturday/Sunday, yay! 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:11, 17 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Not in Cuba, but I'm more concerned about Florida. Tampa is the only major port city on the American Gulf Coast that has yet to suffer incredible destruction via hurricane (Galveston, Corpus Christi, New Orleans, Biloxi and to a lesser extent Mobile and Pensacola have all been visited by epic hurricanes). And this storm is reminding me way too much of Charley (granted, Charley was a Category 2 by this point in its track but even so). It's not forecast to be that bad right now, but that's what worries me. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:31, 18 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::Uh oh, it has already killed 77 people, including 50 in Haiti from a flooded bus and 24 in the Dominican Republic in a bus crash. I see a due north movement, more NNE than NNW, and 5/6 models predict it to emerge east of Florida, so we still don't have a good idea where it will go. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:09, 18 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::Unfortunately the use of the words "Haiti" and "tropical cyclone" in the same context never has a good outcome :/ As for Fay's future, the NHC keeps stressing that their forecast is low confidence, and I can totally understand why - the models don't agree very much. We can keep our fingers crossed and hope it fails to reach hurricane status, but we'll see. Albireo 17:58, 18 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::::That enlarged high pressure system, combined with the high that will give us beautiful weather tomorrow in Southern Ontario, are beginning to complicate things quite a bit. GFS and UKMET suggest impact near New Orleans, and it could easily enter the Atlantic. Although it's expected to make landfall soon, the high might even stall the system somewhere, and there's plenty of time left for strengthening. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:15, 18 August 2008 (UTC) Down here in Mobile, it's rained for the past three days. Fay looks like it's getting better organized. It could be a hurricane when you wake up tomorrow morning. On Key West radar, it looks like the inner band is trying wrap around the center and form an eye. Dry air is currently preventing that from happening, but Fay's trying. Good news is that it will likely landfall sooner than originally thought, so it won't have as much time to intensify. Also, if it reemerges in the Atlantic ocean, it could restrengthen some. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:48, 18 August 2008 (UTC) :IMO this should be a hurricane at 5am. Clear eyewall more than halfway complete and it should still be over water at 5. It appears to be nearly stalled and it's just sitting here strengthening. But personally i think it is drifting NE. I think it will move near Everglades city and south of Lake okachobee. Then I'm worried it may get caught by the high, strengthen, and move back west into florida and the gulf! But maybe I'm overdramatizing this. it's just what i think and i reallllly need to sleep soon. 0_o -Winter123 07:18, 19 August 2008 (UTC) ::5am Advisory: Landfall at Cape Romano; Tropical storm, all Hurricane warnings dicontinued. Track's haywire... not sure it could cover more of Florida if it tried. - Salak 09:15, 19 August 2008 (UTC) :::OMG, the high is making its prediction unpredictable, expected to emerge in the Atlantic. GFDL actually predicts a cat. 3 and landfall on the Florida/Georgia border, but maybe the remnant low could give us rain in a few days, this high pressure system is giving us crystal-clear skies but it's COLD! 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:18, 19 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Is it just me, or does the satellite presentation get ''better as the storm moves over Florida? Albireo 20:32, 19 August 2008 (UTC) :::::It now has a well-developed eye, and is expected to strengthen to a hurricane and make landfall near Jacksonville, with hurricane watches up to St. Simmons island. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:29, 19 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Oh yeah, and instead of weakening, the advisories have strengthened it by 5mph since landfall. HOW!? - Salak 21:59, 19 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::Scary, isn't it? --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 22:11, 19 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER...Shit, that's me! I'm away at school right now, but my family has a condo down on St. Simons Island just south of Altamaha Sound. Why? Aren't storms supposed to weaken over land? -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:14, 19 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::::Fay didn't get that memo.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 00:41, 20 August 2008 (UTC) I think I might know why it's restrengthening, and I propose several reasons: Most of the convection is located in the super-warm Atlantic and has been for the past few hours, and its centre is only 15 km (10 mi) from shore, plus the extra rainfall over low-lying warm marshy lake-filled land may be giving it extra water, and some of the convection is over the Gulf as well, so it's been able to gain strength from its outer bands. As for fure movement, GFDL is still predicting a high-end cat. 3, with HWRF a low-end cat. 2. Saint Simmons Island could still get hurricane-force winds, and for some reason I thought you lived in Atlanta, and the storm is supposed to be a whole 100 km (60 mi) from Mobile as a TD. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:51, 20 August 2008 (UTC) :My family still lives in Atlanta, but we have a condo down on St. Simons. I'm in Mobile for school. Looks like it's going to be all Florida now. I could see some pretty heavy this weekend from Fay's remnants though. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:30, 20 August 2008 (UTC) Now that Fay stalled over Cape Canaveral I wonder if the track back westwards will get her back into the Gulf maybe in the Appalachee Bay just off Tallahassee. -- 19:24, 20 August 2008 (UTC) :It's nearly stationary, circling around itself and its eye is getting bigger. It's on top of New Smyrna Beach, and some places have gotten a whole year's worth of rain! It's gaining strength, but should slowly move westward over the next few days, and its remnants might affect southern Ontario by maybe August 31st. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:18, 21 August 2008 (UTC) ::Third US landfall: ...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY BEGINNING TO CROSS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR FLAGLER BEACH... 60mph sustained winds, moving at 2mph WNW. - Salak 18:24, 21 August 2008 (UTC) :::Track now wandering south and re-entering the Gulf! Expected to keep as a TS and then a third landlall on Florida, then a forth landfall near Mobile, before wandering up the Mississippi as a TD. This storm won't die! 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:15, 22 August 2008 (UTC) ::::What's the record for most landfalls by one system? Fay has made landfall is the Dominican Republic, Cuba, Key West, twice on the Florida peninsula... forecasts say it'll make another in the Florida Panhandle before a SEVENTH landfall in Alabama!? - Salak 15:06, 22 August 2008 (UTC) :::::I don't know that anyone keeps track of it, partially because "landfall" itself is subjective, and partly because of storms that cross archipelagos - would you count a seperate "landfall" for each island the eye crosses? I know that '98 Georges had at least seven (Antigua, St. Kitts if you include landfall on Nevis, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Cuba, Key West, Biloxi), '94 Gordon had six (Nicaragua, Jamaica, Cuba, Florida Keys, West Florida, East Florida), 04' Jeanne had at least 5 (Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Abaco Island, Florida) and possibly more when it went over the Bahamas, 07' Noel had at least 5 (Haiti, Haiti, Cuba, Andros Island, Nassau) and possibly more over the Bahamas ... probably a lot more. I'm thinking it's a bit more common than you think. Consider the numerous typhoons that cross the Philippines and probably rack up dozens of technical landfalls along the way as it crosses the numerous islands there. Albireo 18:04, 22 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Models are dissagreeing again, and the storm is expected to spend about four days over the Mississippi River. I have the feeling that multiple storms will hit southern Ontario right before school starts to conspire into a massive flood. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:01, 22 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::Salek, the record for most landfalls by a single tropical cyclone (in the Atlantic at least), according to one of my fellow MET majors at USA in Mobile, used to be five (Florence in 1960). That record may have but hours to live. The Florida Keys storm in 1906 had six landfalls (Nicaragua, Belize, Cuba, Keys, S FL, NE FL) Fay is forecast to park right over us essentially and dump a sh!tload of rain. Sounds like a fun weekend. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:32, 22 August 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Fay back in the Gulf Hope no one mind me getting tired of scrolling all the way back up whenever I wanted to comment. Fay is now back having un in the gulf; anyway, new watches are up with the 11PM update, from the Alabama/Miss border all the way to the mouth of the Mississipi (not including, sayeth NHC, Lake Pontchartrain and NOLA).--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 03:13, 23 August 2008 (UTC) Seeing as I live on the north shore of Lake Ponchartrain, I think I'll ignore that part of the NHC statement and watch this storm VERY closely...last thing I want is to be out and about with all the street flooding on BOTH sides of the lake. Why on earth would they NOT include NOLA and the lake, given how easy everything here floods? 03:23, 23 August 2008 (UTC) :They're included now; AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. - Salak 11:41, 23 August 2008 (UTC) ::A tropical storm warning now includes both the New Orleans area and Mobile. A TS should be no problem for New Orleans but I don't think they've seen one since 2005. Fay is the first ever storm to make four landfalls in Florida, and now it looks like it could make a fifth or sixth landfall in the US, which would set yet another record, and models are continuing the nonstop flirting Fay has had with the high. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:18, 23 August 2008 (UTC) :::Looks like that's it actually. Warnings discontinued West of Alabama/Mississippi border, it's stayed on land in the Florida Panhandle; hasn't gone back into the gulf. It's looking like it'll only be a Depression when it makes closest approach to NOLA, and even then it may be some way to the North. Time's up for Fay it seems. - Salak 02:00, 24 August 2008 (UTC) Tropical Depression Fay Well, that's like Fay, isn't it? Now that everyone expected it to go do a rampage in NOLA...it ups and vanishes instead. Joker, indeed. We should retire the name on virtue of how annoying this one was --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 05:09, 24 August 2008 (UTC) :Although it is a depression, it is still causing trouble as NOLA residents face the risk of flash floods and are preparing sandbagging. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:05, 25 August 2008 (UTC) ::We've gotten maybe an inch down here in Mobile; just random spurts of pissy, Seattle-esque rain. In between rain showers, it's actually been quite comfortable. St. Simons Island on the GA coast where my condo is got pretty hammered with about three inches, gusty winds and beach erosion. Ground zero was Waycross, GA to Ocala, FL (for the second landfall anyway) the worst effects were there. The storm kinda just skipped over us, hopping north and then back south again toward Biloxi. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 04:10, 25 August 2008 (UTC) :::Remnants are expected to hit southern Ontario by Friday. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:33, 25 August 2008 (UTC) ::::We're already seeing the outer clouds and occasional 20mph gusts. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:47, 27 August 2008 (UTC)